IT'S COMING, ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. CHANCES ARE, ALL THOSE STUDIES AND NIMBY PROTESTS WON'T AFFECT THE LIKELY FINAL RESULT: SKYTRAIN ON THE WEST SIDE.

by RICHARD LITTLEMORE

YOU MUST ADMIT THAT, AS THEY BURST THROUGH THE COLD, STILL WINTER NIGHTS, those ghostly, driverless Sky Train cars pass overhead with a futuristic whoosh. Of course, if you're one of the gentry lucky enough to have landed on Vancouver's West Side, you may never have imagined such a whoosh in your future-but you'd be wrong. Even as you read this, a special, multi-agency steering committee is spending 573,000 of your tax dollars to decide not whether to build a rapid-transit line from Vancouver to Richmond, but when. And, if the region can leverage transit money out of the federal government, the future may come sooner than any of us had expected.

The line under consideration is a variation of one that has appeared in every regional transit plan since 1969. It runs from Richmond town centre over the north arm of the Fraser River, through Vancouver's West Side and into downtown. There's been a flurry of further studies-on what kind of a rapid-transit technology, and which route-but never any doubt that a line must ultimately be built.

Vancouver councillor Gordon Price is quick to offer the most obvious rationale: every year in the Lower Mainland, we add 23,000 cars to the existing stock. And while each new owner climbs behind the wheel with car-commercial conviction that the road ahead will be clear and uncongested, the truth is less promising. Do the math. Multiply 23,000 by, say, five metres, and you get 115 kilometres of new lane space necessary every year-just to park.

The result? Clogged traffic arteries that are bad for our nerves, our lungs and- given global warming-our planet. They also damage our international competitiveness, says Ken Cameron, manager of policies and planning at the Greater Vancouver Regional District. We currently have a highly efficient urban region; as well, according to the International Air Transport Association, YVR is the best airport in North America. Both could be lost in a cloud of smog if we don't look after transportation infrastructure around Sea Island.

A burgeoning YVR, more than anything, explains the latest push for rapid transit from Richmond. In 1996, when Cameron's crew at the GVRD wrote the definitive regional transportation plan {Transport 2021), they projected that 20,000 people would be working at or around the airport by 2021. But YVR's success means 22,000 people work on Sea Island already, a number expected to double within 20 years. That doesn't even count the 16 million frequent fliers who passed through during 2000, including a million travelling downtown to get on cruise ships. No wonder the Vancouver International Airport Authority was one of the biggest advocates for the current transit study, putting up $250,000. Transport Canada matched that amount (the remainder came, mostly in kind, from the other partners: the cities of Richmond and Vancouver, the Vancouver Port Authority, the B.C. government, TransLink and the GVRD).

The likely outcomes? Jane Bird, the Vancouver city planner who's been seconded as director of the steering committee, is loath to prejudge a result that's not due until March 1, 2001. Her team is looking at a host of factors, including financial and social costs, the strain on road infrastructure and the potential success of the Richmond RapidBus project. (The B-Line on Broadway boosted ridership on that corridor by 30 percent; maybe Rapid-Bus will take up the slack.)

But previous studies identified two arteries through the West Side: the controversial CP Rail right-of-way down West Boulevard; and the Cambie corridor. "That's a huge political problem," says Vancouver councillor and GVRD chair George Puil. "Every councillor from Vancouver has avoided the question because you alienate one group or the other." (Not satisfied with half measures, Puil himself risked the wrath of the entire region with the TransLink vehicle levy, but that's another story.)

Without dismissing the politics, here's what earlier studies concluded. The Cambie route is straighter, shorter and already boasts several significant traffic destinations (Langara Community College, Oakridge, Vancouver Hospital and City Hall and environs). West Boulevard is comparatively sparse, winding and bucolic- and, in the words of Gordon Price, boasts more lawyers per square kilometre than any community in the Lower Mainland. Guess which route is favoured?

The only wrinkle involves the airport's participation. The Cambie route is only shorter if the line starts in Richmond town centre, with a spur to the airport. If, instead, the line begins in Richmond but turns a corner and goes directly to YVR, West Boulevard offers the straightest shot to downtown.

As for which technology is favoured, Richmond mayor Greg Halsey-Brandt says no way to SkyTrain. The concrete guideway now crawling down Lougheed Highway is, he says, too ugly and out of scale to be acceptable on No. 3 Road. Brave words, but Bombardier, the SkyTrain builder, is big business in this town, with a control and maintenance facility and a car-assembly plant full of workers who want to keep their jobs. When the federal or provincial government delivers funds to build a new line, don't expect Halsey-Brandt to cast the deciding vote.

These are issues for the next phase of study, which will only begin if Jane Bird's team finds both a compelling business case and an appetite among government agencies to pony up the dough. Stay tuned.